Stability does not start with technology, but with strategic foresight.
In the past, energy planning was often seen as a technical task. Today, however, geopolitics, supply chains, climate targets and a permanent crisis mode determine the reality. This means for decision-makers: Energy planning is no longer routine. It is part of the national security architecture.
"We had backup systems!" - Why redundancy is not enough
Many properties rely on redundant systems, emergency generators or alternative power supplies. But what happens if the supply fails? When fuels are scarce? What if grids not only fail, but are deliberately attacked?
Redundancy is not a comprehensive plan. It is a technical reserve. This is because systemic vulnerability arises precisely where operational planning relies on statistical assumptions. What is missing is strategic resilience - and that starts with scenarios.
Geopolitical scenarios: From risk report to certainty of action
Whether it's a gas dispute, cyberattack or blockade of supply chains - many crises have political overtones, as we experience every day in world affairs. In energy planning, however, they are often ignored or only passively observed.
THORIUM, our platform for resilience planning, is changing that:
- It integrates geopolitical risks directly into the scenario models.
- It assesses the impact on operations, replenishment and security of supply.
- It simulates options for action in the event of peace, disruption and crisis.
And not on the basis of gut feeling, but with sound data. In real time, visually and relevant to decision-making.
Case study: Three scenarios, one location, no blackouts
A location close to NATO is planning a new energy supply. The aim is to ensure reliability in the event of a crisis, including supply bottlenecks caused by geopolitical tensions.
A scenario-based model is created together with HDC Solutions:
Scenario 1: Supply chain fails for ten days, diesel reserves are critical.
Scenario 2: The power grid is unstable due to cyber attacks.
Scenario 3: Supply is prioritized for medical modules and the command post (Critical Core).
Result: By adapting the storage capacities, cross-sector coupling and an adaptive operating strategy, the supply can be demonstrably secured in all scenarios.
Resilience becomes mandatory
A paradigm shift is currently underway at a political level. With the so-called KRITIS umbrella law, the German government wants to make central minimum standards binding for operators of critical infrastructures, including risk analyses, reporting obligations and incident monitoring.
For operators in the energy industry, this means that the time of voluntary resilience measures is over. Physical security, protection against outages and the inclusion of geopolitical scenarios in planning will be legally binding in the future.
The pressure is great and the deadlines are tight. As soon as the law comes into force, operators will be subject to tight implementation deadlines, which should already be included in planning today in order to avoid penalties and supply risks.
Conclusion: If you don't make provisions, you will be regulated
Geopolitics, crises and gaps in supply cannot be ignored, neither technically nor politically. The KRITIS Umbrella Act makes it clear that resilience is no longer an option, but a duty.
THORIUM provides the basis for this: not just scenarios, but a clear basis for decision-making. For basic operation, for emergencies and for every future test report.
The question is no longer whether you plan, but how proactively you do it.
